I Don’t Think People Realize What They’ve Done
Some scattered thoughts on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
The post below is about the election. We’ll return to our regularly scheduled programming about film/TV/media/tech later this week. Hopefully.
Yesterday, Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election, completing an astonishing political comeback that will see him become the 47th President of the United States.
Trump had much to overcome. He was denounced by political figures across the spectrum in the wake of his last election when he refused a peaceful transfer of power and incited a rebellion at the Capitol. He’s been convicted of multiple felonies. By all accounts, his campaign was shambolic, featuring rallies where he rambled incoherently for minutes on end while attendees fled early in droves.
Meanwhile Kamala Harris had many advantages. She shattered fundraising records. She had an astonishing ground game. Her rallies were jam-packed, loaded with celebrity talent, and full of enthusiasm and joy. Her coalition spanned virtually every significant pop culture figure alive today, from Beyoncé to Insane Clown Posse, from Harrison Ford to Taylor Swift.
In the end, none of it was enough.
A lot of people will have theories about what was to blame for Harris’s failures. Was it America’s deep-seated racism/sexism? Harris’s alienating the youth vote because of her position on Gaza? Harris tacking too far to the left on issues like abortion? Or too far to the right by including folks like Liz Cheney in her campaign, courting a Republican-defector vote that didn’t exist? No doubt many folks will have an opinion.
I’m sure all of those decisions played a factor to some degree. But Trump’s lead in so many states is so wide that it doesn’t feel like any specific element of Harris’s campaign could’ve overcome it. For my money, it seems like a lot of people who voted for Trump were unhappy with the status quo and they believed that voting against the incumbent would send a message about how the current administration’s policies were not working for them. How else to explain all the downballot races (e.g. North Carolina) which went for the Dems but where the Presidential vote went for Trump? How else to explain all the states that voted to protect abortion but also for Trump (whose second term will undoubtedly make abortion even harder to access)?
There’s a thread by a sociologist named Sharon Quinsaat that I think really nails what some of this dissatisfaction comes down to. Quinsaat spent months interviewing Filipinos, native Hawaiians, and other immigrants and learned the following:
Many people have real material grievances (e.g., housing, high cost of living) that to them is not being addressed by the Democratic leadership…They have been extremely dissatisfied by the leadership that, to them, is "not really interested in solving their economic problems." The appeal to identity politics and threat of fascism (the main campaign message of Harris) does not resonate with them. They have just completely lost faith in the Democratic Party, and the only alternative for them (because we are a two-party system) is the Republicans. One interviewee said, "They promised and then they sold us out" (rough translation). One woman who went door-to-door campaigning for Obama in 2008 and 2012 went 180 in 2016 and completely disdained Democrats. She said, “I almost lost my house. I'm in debt. I have lost trust in their ability to deliver.”
At the end of the day, people felt like the party that was in power didn’t understand their economic pain and they voted to send a message. Harris represented the incumbent party and did nothing to distance herself from Biden (Why should she? She was likely proud of their accomplishments). But Biden, for a combination of reasons, was extremely unpopular. Maybe in some alternate universe where Biden dropped out early and the Dems held an actual primary and got someone that could really go against the grain of Biden’s economic message, another Democratic candidate could’ve broken through. But I’m doubtful.
In a normal year, there wouldn’t be anything wrong with people using their votes in this way. But this isn’t a normal year and Trump isn’t a normal candidate.
The people keeping Trump in check during his first term have all fled, leaving only craven grifters. The Supreme Court have essentially given Trump a blank check to enact his agenda. Trump will target members of the press and political enemies. He will meet protestors with violence. He has promised to deport millions of immigrants, which will not only create economic ruination but will likely require a surveillance apparatus the likes of which we’ve never seen before. Trump has promised to install opportunists in his cabinet like RFK Jr (who will fight against vaccine mandates and fluoridating water) and Elon Musk (who has literally promised a level of austerity that will crash the economy). The Ukraine war is likely lost. Trump has promised that he will let Netanyahu “finish the job” in Gaza. NATO is in jeopardy. And you can probably forget any meaningful action on the existential threat of climate change for at least a few years.
The consequences of this election will be felt for a generation. It will touch virtually every part of your life. Your ability to buy groceries. Your ability to breathe clean air. Your ability to save for retirement. Your ability to marry who you love and to plan for your family. Your ability to get healthcare. Your ability to vote out a politician you don’t like. It won’t be like Trump’s last term. Who knows if it’ll be like any presidency we’ve ever seen before.
I agree with David Karpf: One day the Trump era will end. But it will take decades to undo the damage. Maybe longer.
The argument could be made that Americans don’t understand the full consequences of what they’ve done. I actually believe that’s the case because the geopolitical implications alone are staggering and I just don’t think most people have this stuff on their mind at the ballot box.
But they should be thinking about it. Whether we deserve it or not, America is too important in the world for our economic issues and other grievances lead us to install a petty tyrant. There’s too much at stake. For once, we needed to look beyond our immediate needs and ponder our place in the world. We failed to do so. The amount of human suffering that will result is incalculable.
But putting that aside (and it is a lot to put aside), one thing this election showed us is that Americans are cool with this guy. They saw the chaos of the past decade and were willing to gamble on more of it. They looked straight into the eyes of a racist, misogynist felon and welcomed him back into the Oval Office. And regardless of what comes next, we will never be able to ever say again that this is not who we are as a country.
As a Canadian who had no control over the outcome but will be disproportionally effected by the negative outcomes due to our shared border, I can't be anything other than angry. I now have to endure your bullshit and I get no say in any of it. It's important to remember we live in a globalized society. That's true whether you build a wall or not. So when you act out like this, the effects it has on the rest of the world are huge.
I fully agree with your analysis. What I find a bit maddening is that yes, democrats didn’t connect enough with voters on their most pressing issue (their economic insecurity), but it is very self-centered and myopic to blame the current US administration for issues that ALL of the Western world faced in the last few years. The US economy generally, but also real wages and purchasing power specifically, faired better in the US than in most other countries.
US commentators and, frankly, voters, are so blind to what is happening outside of the US bubble that their perspective is completely off-base. Biden managed to stir the ship well in that environment. It is wild to think that Trump, of all people, would have done better.
That is all forgetting the extremely terrible blow this will do to the environment, the issue of climate change, healthcare, women specifically, the economy (!) and immigrants.