Here are my guesses. Later, you can laugh at how wrong I am.
Domestic gross predictions look right on the money. I predict Mermaid will do maybe double what you think though. This one has a different resonance and appeal to a much larger overlap of audiences. Ariel has since the 80s become a queer icon and a metaphor for queer and trans women. And now she's played by a woman of color!! People will run to see this one. The songs sound like worthy updates, too.
Little Mermaid will do so well that everyone will groan thinking of all the wrong lessons Disney will take away from why Mermaid succeeded while most of their other live action movies were events that don't live beyond nostalgia.
I think Oppenheimer got bumped out of Summer now, no? Thought I read that somewhere at some point.